Upon hearing the rumors that the Rays are leading the charge for the highly-coveted free agent-to-be, Jayson Werth, immediately the gears in my noggin started churning and wondering what, exactly would be an acceptable return for such a commodity. There’s a lot to take into account here, but I’ve found that THIS TOOL put together by the illustrious Sky Kalkman is ties together some of the most central concepts so that any novice can do a quick analysis. It should be noted that I changed the value of a win from $4.5M to $4M for this exercise. Click the jump to see the top-to-bottom analysis, as well as, the conclusions.
The above pretty chart is what is spit out by the TVC upon entering the inputs of expected WAR for the rest of the year and money that is owed. Over the previous three seasons, Werth has put up WAR of 4.8, 5.0, and 3.2 in 2007. If we do a 5:3:2 analysis on that we find out that Werth can be expected to put up around 4.5 WAR a year. There is 43% of the season left to be played so the prorated expected WAR comes to 1.93 for the rest of the season. You’ll notice this totals 4.2 on the year, which would represent a third straight decline from his high of 5.0 WAR in 2008, that said, I don’t care since he’s gone next year and we could use his bat yesterday. We can multiply that same 43% number by the $7M that he is owed overall to find that he is owed $2.98M the rest of the season. Werth profiles as a solid Type-A player if you put any stock in this.
So after all of that we know that Werth has a surplus value of nearly $10M for only a couple of months of baseball and a vapor trail when he jets. We can now get into the heart of this post, what will we have to give up for this? In Sky’s post he points you toward this put together by Erik Manning. You can feel free to mix and match, but what I’ve come up with that makes a lot of sense uses John Sickels pre-season rankings that have Alex Colome as a B pitching prospect and David Newmann as a C+ older than 25 pitching prospect. These two would cover $8.8M of the surplus value, but both of these guys are having excellent seasons with their respective teams and have probably moved up in value. Additionally, Newmann might be an older guy, but he’s lost two seasons to injury and been quite good in the two that he has managed to stay healthy. As a lefty you have to figure that he could go in the pen tomorrow if that’s what they needed him for. Anything added to this would have to be a non-prospect that maybe fills a hole in their farm, but it is my opinion that these two pitchers should be enough for the bat that we require.