Here are the projections from statistical guru Bill James for the Rays’ pitchers in 2011. If you think the numbers are a bit high or a bit low, please read the methodology behind those numbers.
| Name | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 14 | 10 | 217 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 3.57 | 3.94 |
| Shields | 11 | 11 | 204 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.06 | 3.93 |
| Garza | 12 | 11 | 206 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 3.80 | 4.04 |
| Niemann | 8 | 8 | 147 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 4.10 | 4.43 |
| Davis | 9 | 9 | 163 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 4.09 | 4.26 |
| Hellickson | 11 | 7 | 161 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 3.47 | 3.45 |
| Sonnanstine | 4 | 5 | 88 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4.40 | 4.34 |
Like Jennings, I think the projections are quite kind to the young Hellickson here as I have a tough time believing he will have the best ERA on the staff in 2011. Before the 2010 season, I predicted David Price would be the best starting pitcher on the staff but I am not yet ready to make that leap of faith with Hellickson. The one thing that should really jump out at you at this point is the lack of returning members of the bullpen with the team. The turnover in the bullpen could likely be quite shocking and the 2010 crew set the bar extremely high.
