Which Final HR Total Will Be Higher?

Before making your choice, consider the facts at hand:

  1. Baseball Prospectus’ projection system, PECOTA, believes no Rays batter will hit more than 25 home runs in 2011.
  2. The Marcel projections from Tom Tango has Evan Longoria leading the Rays with 24 home runs in 2011.
  3. The Fangraphs fan projections have Longoria hitting 32 home runs to lead the club and has Shields giving up 27 home runs.
  4. The Marcel projections predicts Shields to give up 25 home runs while PECOTA predicts 28.
  5. Shields home run to fly ball ratio has been 14%, 11%, 10%, 11%, and 14% over the past five seasons (in order). Last season’s 14% was three percentage points above his previous career average.
  6. 18% of Shields’ home runs in 2010 were given up in a single August start against the Toronto Blue Jays. Shields became just the eighth pitcher since 1920 to give up that many home runs in a single start and the last one since R.A. Dickey did it in 2006.
  7. Shields gave up six more home runs on the season than Carlos Pena hit who led the offense with 28 home runs.

Please make your vote and if you would, explain your choice in the comments section below.

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About Jason Collette

Writer/Analyst
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4 Responses to Which Final HR Total Will Be Higher?

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  2. Jonathan says:

    I don’t have any great logic other than my thought that Longoria recovers some of his power and gets back up to 30+. In other words, it’s not that Shields will be any better, it’s based on Longoria producing more than last year.

  3. Jason Hanselman says:

    I could see Joyce popping 25, not sure that’s going to be good enough. Longo’s are best bet, but I’m surprised Sportsbook hasn’t put this as a prop yet. I’m sure they’ve got a couple thousand just like it

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