Top 100 Lists and the Rays Prospects

Baseball America, Keith Law of ESPN, and our recent guest Kevin Goldstein have now all published their top 100 (or 101 in KG’s case) prospect lists for 2011. Some of the content requires a subscription but if you click on each of their names, you can view their lists.

The matrix below shows how each prospect ranked on each of the three lists as well as their average ranking. Anyone who was not ranked on one of the three lists received a ranking of 102.

  • The range in Archer’s ranking is quite surprising and I am guessing that his control issue and possible future as a late innings guy is affecting that ranking
  • The Alex brothers were only ranked by Law; Torres was mentioned in KG’s interview over the weekend as he talked about his thoughts on him.
  • Baseball America seems to love the best of the Rays farm system more than anyone and I do not think that has anything to do with the fact their home office is around the corner from where the Durham Bulls play.

About Jason Collette

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4 Responses to Top 100 Lists and the Rays Prospects

  1. raysprof says:

    Jason – was there a study looking at the probability of a prospect
    a) making the Majors
    b) being an above average player
    as a function of their ranking in the prospects list(s)? For example, if a player makes the top 10, what is the probability he will be a regular in the majors? What is the probability he will be an above average player? How about for those ranked below 50? You ask about wide ranking of Archer. Maybe the noise at this level is such that the probability of success for those between 25-50 isn’t much different between those between 50 and 75.

    • I am not aware of a huge one but I can check around. I tackled the pitching prospect angle of it back in 2005 from a fantasy baseball perspective. In that, I found that “”The overall numbers of the studies show that in the last 15 years of ranking minor league prospects, there have been 420 pitchers on those lists. Out of those 420 pitchers, only 296 have appeared in the majors, which computes to 70%. Therefore, 30% of the pitchers that appear on this list never make the major leagues. Out of the remaining 296 pitchers, only 103 of them have produced what I consider to be roster-worthy statistics; that’s only 25% of the original 420 pitchers [emphasis added]. If only one in four pitching prospects become roster-worthy material, it is important to do your homework on these guys before picking them for your futures roster. I’ve done the research for you, but please understand past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance.”

      • raysprof says:

        This is great – something tangible! My understanding is that 1/100 players in the high A leagues ever make it to the Majors (and I can’t remember where I found that statistic) and given that probably only 1/3rd of those had had roster-worthy statistics, it does say that making the “lists” does increase the chances by an huge margin.

      • Here is some more good info I just found by position.

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