Game 1 v. Baltimore Orioles

I would like to give a quick preview for each game using a couple of tools.  Check out this image and then I’ll break it down each game:

You can see the starting lineups for each team and some numbers.  The wOBA, BA, OBP, SLG, and ISO columns are based on each players agg projection for this year.  Once rest of season Zips is fully primed I will probably switch over to that, but for now we’re going to use these.  The last column uses the Matchup Tool created by myself and Ian Malinowski.

The basic idea is that we can regress platoon splits for both batters and pitchers and combine this with the overall projection to get an idea of how each batter/pitcher would perform against the average pitcher/batter.  We’ve taken this one step further by looking at what performance would look like against that individual pitcher instead of the average.  So you would expect Nick Markakis to have a .276 wOBA against David Price and so on.

We can then make an assumption on plate appearances for each batter (leadoff gets 5.4 and everyone else discounts 7% from there down the line) to get an idea of what a properly weighted overall wOBA against that pitcher for this lineup might look like.  In this instance I have the Orioles forecasted to have a .294 wOBA today while the Rays come in at .322.  This is around a 9% difference so I would give the Rays a 59% chance of winning today and the Orioles then receive a 41% chance of winning today.  Of course anything can happen over one data point so tune in at 3:00 PM to watch the Rays Opening Day.

Also, be sure to drop by our sister site Blue Seat Lyfe for this afternoon’s game day thread to discuss what you see and anything else that pops into that tasty brain of yours.

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About Jason Hanselman

Rays fan.
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