It looks like Rays righty Chris Archer might want to buy a nicer house in St. Jetersburg now that he can afford it. It would appear that the two sides have reached an agreement to a six year contract with two option years. I probably don’t have to tell you that this has the potential to be an incredible deal, but I did want to show some stuff that shows that this has the chance to be an incredible deal:
If Chris Archer is fairly average over the next few years and then has a traditional fall off starting his last year of team control then you’re talking around 13 wins at a cost of $42.5M and on-field production of around $84M. So if Chris Archer is mediocre we’re looking at something like double the value and in all likelihood those options at the end aren’t picked up so you can probably knock another 16-18M off that figure and just cut bait on the last two years. What if Archer becomes a star?:
Let’s say he has a slow build over the next few years culminating in a peak of 4.5 WAR with traditional slopes on either side of that summit. We’d still be paying him that roughly $42.5M, but now he’s producing 28 wins over the eight years and providing something like $186M in on-field value for a crazy-good surplus of almost $145M. And if he’s somewhere in between he’s still a really good value.
With any of these signings you’re betting that the player isn’t going to have a catastrophic, career-ending injury, but that does happen from time to time. As such, there needs to be some risk factored in that I’m not including and you may also want to downgrade future wins a nudge, because they’re far away and not soon. On the other hand, this is a fairly conservative inflation rate of 5% so keep in mind this is just a model and not perfection.
Whether you believe Sir Plus is better met by comparing future or present value to production is up to you, but I have used present value here. Apply whatever caveats you wish and this appears to be another feather in the cap for the Rays front office. Kudos on getting a smart, hard working, ridiculously talented player to sign on the line so that us fans can get a jersey we know will be here for awhile, and kudos to Chris Archer for realizing that a lot of money is a lot of money. It might be less than more money, but it’s here today and sticking around for awhile. Get cozy, kid.