The numero uno big dogs drafted over the better part of yesterday with much aplomb. Unlike the other leagues that have been set up, this league is filled with season pros that know their way around a spreadsheet or at least have the GUTS to click that little +1 just one more time. I’ve been asked to recap the draft so that is what I will attempt to do. As always, if you don’t like how I’m handling an assumption, well, I look forward to your recap.
First off, some ground rules. I don’t put out on the first date, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun. Since teams drafted different numbers of players and because the format encourages hoarding far away prospects I will only be totaling categories for the top 33 players sorted by most to least points. If you drafted 40 guys then your top 33 projected point-getters will be featured. If you drafted Mariano Rivera then no he will not be factored into the count.
You’re probably questioning how these points were derived. One word: plastics. Just kidding, I used hardcore nerd science, a dash of magic, and a little something that I like to call spurt juice. Being a points league it’s relatively easy to calculate expected points because we have the applied weights and just need the totals for each category. To get that crucial piece of information I have taken a simple average of what Steamer and Zips think for each player. At that point we need only apply the conversion rates and voilà total points.
When crafting this stuff for the auction you’re going to want to take position and replacement into account. If a starting pitcher gives you 1,000 points, but there’s a hundred guys that can do that then that 1,000 points is a lot less shiny. Budget constraints dictate this as a necessity, but we don’t care about budget at this point, because most of these teams are fully formed. This is a lazy shortcut, yes. Also, I’m not docking pitchers at three points per hit by pitch which hurts them some, but hurting non-closing relievers even more is that they’re not getting the four points per hold that they will get during the season. While the former means you can probably take something like 30 points away from full time starters, you’re also going to want to add up to 150 points for the best lock down set up men that do work outside of the 9th inning. On to the results:
You can click through each of the tabs to see your team, but it’s probably easier if you just download the workbook Draft Recap so that you can do your own data manipulation as you see fit. It would seem like some glorified half-assedry to just leave this here and walk away so I’ll also review each team below.
I hated this guy. He sat back and hoarded his money while making sure to bid up any player that I wanted. MakeitRayn is sitting on the pole by expected points due almost solely to his lumpy mass of starting pitchers. I’m guessing the 1,500 IP limit will be a challenge. The other challenge is turning all those outfielders into guys that can fill other positions. While this team looks poised for success it’s not going to happen overnight.
This is my team. Kneel before your God. I’m pretty happy with how this turned out even if I got outbid on every single starter that I wanted. I wish I had more prospects to stash, but that was another area where I did not wish to run up a tab. Getting Carlos Santana to play C or 3B was probably my highlight, but the bullpen that I’ve built is going to be dynamic to go with a lineup that lacks holes.
$tu’s Bottom Line
Much like the namesake of this team it was all about value. I love the starters that were generally gotten on the cheap by focusing on second or third tier pitchers instead of wading into the cesspool that saw two to three times the cost for guys that are only somewhat better. The lineup is filled with stars like Adam Jones, Carlos Gomez and Robbie Cano. If there’s a weakness it looks like the pen where Britton and Cecil represent nice save sources, but don’t knock off socks.
When’s The Re-Draft
After shooting his load on Kershaw and Abreu I thought this team would be really behind the 8-ball, but there’s a ton to like with studs like Desmond, Dickerson and Harper. This is a balanced team that still had resources to throw at the pen and the prospects. If two of ‘Kuma, Richards or Verlander give you what you expect then the staff should hold up their end of the bargain, but that may prove to be a tall order.
Our fearless commissioner showed a penchant for the children as he stocked up on prospects in the form of Susac, Crawford, Hanson, and Souza. I adore Puig at that value, though he obviously suffered a stroke when he saw Yordano on the block. There’s a lot of speed here and a good amount of power, but I’m a little overwhelmed by the staff. With a fully stocked pen that might not matter as much as another team.
It’s easy to like this staff as it’s fronted by a good mix of studs and up-and-comers. A really strong pen backs that up with saves aplenty, but I can’t help but wonder if there’s enough offense here. With $36 for nine slots this team still has a bunch of flexibility to tack on a player or two. Pablo Sandoval is really fat. I saw him almost get thrown out at second on a ball off the wall a couple of days ago. Good contract!
Arnold T. Pants, Esq.
Lots of speed and pitching here and it’s hard to dislike a lineup that starts with McCutchen and Bautista. There’s some other stars mixed in and a possible larceny with Harvey at $29. More of a stars and scrubs approach than we’ve seen so far, but I think there’s some real steals in the sub-$5 range.
Sandal’s Man Hole Scandals
No projections for Moncada, but I thought he was a real steal late in the draft when most folks had either gone home or spent their load. Dozier at $15 is a huge get which helped set up some bigger ticket items that leave Sandals with a formidable rotation and a dynamic lineup. Then pen leaves much to be desired, but having a boatload of money left over probably makes that not such a big deal. This is a serious team.
Still room for growth with that many slots to fill, but there’s some real star power here. You pay for certainty with King Felix so you just swallow that price tag and try to get value elsewhere. I thought Braun and Duda helped do just that very thing. We see it some more with Tulo about where you’d think and then good values on Shoemaker, Myers and especially Adams.
We’re Only in it for the Money
Not a total stars and scrubs because while the front part is definitely here in great players like Scherzer, Bumgarner, Rizzo and Donaldson we see some really good values in the middle of the list in guys like Davis, Frazier, Moss and Smyly. We’re a mess of dollar players away from a full roster, but if those players can be acquired with similar proficiency then you’re staring at the makings of a really good team.
Adam Laroche’s Second Half
Co-commish hit a few homers early and then disappeared for a bunch of the draft after spending all that dolo. There’s obviously a whole gang of talent here and that’s probably a steal on Lester compared to where we’ve seen other very good pitchers be priced. Bryant saw HEAVY flow, but this was the team that ultimately nailed him down. Once he’s up it’s going to be tough to top a lineup headlined by Goldschmidt, Stanton and Bryant. The pitching is pretty good too.
This is how you do stars and scrubs. And Mariano Rivera. And Hiroki Kuroda. This guy bid everything through the roof early then must have passed out from his obvious intoxication because we didn’t see him until the very end. Getting Trout for $76 and then Sale and Stras for about the same combined means you’re going to have plenty of options for who’s face to plaster outside the stadium, but it’s difficult to see finding twenty players for a dollar a piece that will allow the cowboys to ride. At least we got some laughs out of it.
With several slots still needing to be filled it’s difficult to write off many of these teams while those that are already filled will have significantly lesser flexibility going forward. This is going to be a really fun league provided people don’t turn coward and stop running their teams. I see one weak sister and a whole lot of bullies ready to take what they want with force. Good luck out there, boyos, know that the Montréal Rays aren’t going ANYWHERE.