Regressed Split Leaders & the Rays 2015 Outfield

It’s probably a small thing, but it always irks me when so-and-so writer or scout says something along the lines of, “(Lefty batter) looks like a really good hitter against righties, but it looks like he’s never going to hit lefties.” The reason I find this so bothersome is that MOST lefties can’t hit lefties. Why take the time to point it out. To show this we can use the matchup tool to look at regressed platoon splits for all batters that received 100 PA or more in 2014. Recall that we’re using these regressed splits to project how a batter will handle the average lefty or righty based on his 2015 Steamer wOBA projection (big ups to that crew, BTW). We’re able to project the matchup based on who the pitcher is, as well, but that won’t be necessary for this exercise.

This is my first time using a linked spreadsheet on this site and it does many things I like and a couple I don’t, but I think this is a big step up from hosted images of spreadsheets. I have sorted the below data by largest to smallest regressed split and you’ll find the batter projected wOBA/wRC+ against the AVERAGE lefty or righty. There’s many takeaways here, but it’s always interesting to see who the names at the top and the bottom are.

I’ll admit, what brought this inquiry on was seeing folks rehash for the 69th time that Jason Heyward probably can’t hit lefties. The thing is, he’s not alone! His tremendous glove keeping him in the lineup aside, he’s in a group of other very good hitters that struggle mightily against lefties. You’ll find him with the 13th largest split amongst lefties sandwiched between Lucas Duda and Seth Smith two guys that should, and are, platooned on a fairly regular basis. If those guys could play defense half as well as Heyward they would be out there everyday, but they can’t, and that’s the point. People get so caught up in what a guy can’t do that they can often miss a guy’s strengths.

Jason Heyward has a fairly obvious weakness that is somewhat easily exploited, but EVERY player has a weakness. Steamer portends a breakout for the lithe outfielder which perhaps is inflating his broken out projections here, but wide splits didn’t stop Shin-Soo Choo from breaking the bank last year despite being a worse fielder with an even bigger split. Good on the Cardinals for getting themselves a real gamer, but I probably would hold off buying the jersey, because this young man is going to hit free agency at the age of 25! next year (How do you do all caps for numbers?) as an elite defender that can absolutely mash righties. Until the majority of starters are left-handed this is the exact type of player teams should be targeting. Let him play everyday where the glove gives value even when the bat doesn’t and throw a platoon at some other position.

On to the Rays hook. Tampa Bay has a veritable wealth of good, but not great outfielders. Once you resign yourself to the fact that the potential return for Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist necessitates them being traded you realize that there are still a ton of moving parts. Take those two off the table and you’re still looking at David DeJesus, Brandon Guyer, Desmond Jennings, Kevin Kiermaier, and Wil Myers as guys that could be everyday players on a different team. Let’s pluck their wRC+ projections out of the above sheet and also take a look at their defensive value:

Batter/vRHP/vLHP/DEF*

DeJesus/101/88/-10.3

Guyer/96/102/-0.7

Jennings/96/104/0.0

Kiermaier/100/88/6.1

Myers/103/107/-7.7

* I’m using Steamer’s DEF rating which incorporates both the quality of defense provided incorporated with the positional adjustment. An above-average corner outfielder might be an average or worse centerfielder while an average centerfielder is almost certainly an above-average guy in the corners. An example, if they think Jennings contributes 0.0 DEF runs then they think he’s going to be worth -2.5 runs worth of defense while playing strictly CF. On the other hand, Kiermaier would be around +13.5 runs worth of defense in a corner or around +3.5 runs in centerfield. It’s a tricky concept, but once you realize what you’re looking at I think it makes sense to all.

Back to the story at hand. The Rays have a finite number of spots that they can pencil into the lineup everyday with more players than spots available. Specifically five guys for four spots, but we can use our knowledge of the opposition starter’s handedness, in conjunction with the numbers above, to estimate some ideal playing time roles. Clearly, given the choice, David DeJesus would never play in the outfield, but you’d love to have him face righties. You’d like to avoid Wil Myers in the field if possible, but his bat is so good that you’d also like to find a way to get him in the lineup everyday. Kiermaier is a different animal where he’s going to struggle against lefties, but his glove is so freaking good that you’d like him out there as often as possible. It’s a good problem to have. So what might an optimal situation look like?

Let’s assume each position gets 650 PA with roughly 70% of that coming against a righty- starter. Note that I have split out the DEF ratings above in to their components of Fielding value and the Position played. We’re ignoring baserunning here, but feel free to add or subtract these small number of runs where you see fit. That’s cool, but let’s look at the totals to get a better idea:

So across these four positions/five guys we’re talking close to 7 WAR. The bright spot is Kiermaier in RF as his defense offsets his poor bat against lefties and the weak spot is DH where DDJ and Myers combine for just under a win. The outfield is basically average across the board when taking into account hitting and defense, which isn’t great, but it could be worse. Setting aside the other eight slots and four positions that need to be covered what looks like something that you’d like to see on your wish list?

These guys cover each other’s weaknesses pretty well, but it sure would be nice to have an upgrade on DeJesus. If you’re going to be all stick then you better bring something tougher than balsa. I think we’re actually pretty good, defensively. Guyer looks like an above-average defender in a corner, Myers is closer to average out there, and Jennings gives you close to average defense in CF. Maybe there’s an avenue there to move him to LF where his range would play up even more, and you can hide his arm a bit. Kiermaier’s projections and the eye test tell me he could probably be a plus defender in CF and his arm certainly plays better, but if you’re looking to flip Jennings in a year or two would you rather sell him as a nearly average bat/glove in CF or an underwhelming bat/plus glove in LF? Alas, this is just another iteration of the difficulty of playing for both today and tomorrow. Often folks talk about trading wins today for tomorrow when talking about trading veterans for prospects, but this also manifests itself when having to make less than ideal choices today in order to satisfy some bigger payout tomorrow. These five make for an interesting group, but it certainly feels like, and stop me if you’ve heard this one before, we’re about a bat short out there.